Danske Bank analysts are expecting that the US Fed will likely keep the target range unchanged at 2.25-2.50% and make no major changes to the statement in its forthcoming meeting this Wednesday.

• We expect Fed to lower its 'dot' signal further to just one rate hike in 2019 (down from two) .

• We expect them to be revised lower also for 2020 and 2021 and we will not be surprised if the Fed signals "one and done".

• We expect the longer-run dot is to be unchanged at 2.75%.

• Our current base case is two Fed hikes (in June and December) based on our overall positive economic outlook.

• However, if the Fed confirms it has changed its reaction function by looking more at inflation expectations and less on the unemployment rate, a June hike seems less likely

• We believe the Fed will announce it will end shrinking its balance sheet in Q4.