Analysts at Danske Bank expect the U.S.-China trade deal to come in the second half of the year and to be extensive.

• “We look for a deal, among other things, to roll back tariffs to a large degree. Meanwhile, we see a 15% risk Donald Trump will attack the car industry in a next step.”
• “A trade deal would support a recovery in China and emerging markets and stabilise eurozone growth at a time when past monetary easing also starts to support.”
• “In equities, a trade deal is largely priced in, leaving risks largely balanced if not slightly on the downside, given the negative 'reality gap' at present.”
• “In FX markets, we expect a trade deal to support commodity currencies versus notably JPY; EUR/USD support in 3-6M but muted to negative initial reaction.”