Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the Canadian headline CPI to firm to 2.0% y/y in April, leaving inflation at Bank of Canada's (BoC) target for the first month since December.

• Our forecast is consistent with a 0.4% m/m increase, helped by a broad pickup in energy prices on the heels of the federal carbon backstop imposed on Ontario, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and New Brunswick on April 1st.
• Looking past energy prices, we expect CAD depreciation to provide a tailwind to food products while ex. food and energy prices should see a soft 0.1% increase (0.2% seasonally adjusted); BoC measures of core inflation are likely to hold at 2.0% on average.