TD Securities' analysts are expecting another firm advance in the U.S. retail sales with the control group (+0.5% m/m) the main driver behind a 0.3% gain in the headline measure for April.

• The increase in the latter would represent a mean-reversion in growth following the notable 1.6% jump in March that likely reflected, to a large extent, a normalization in tax refunds.
• We also expect a soft 0.1% m/m increase in April industrial production, on the back of a 0.2% gain in manufacturing activities. However, recent uninspiring performance and lingering external headwinds increase the risk for a downside surprise in the latter.
• Lastly, the Empire Manufacturing index is expected to give back some of its April strength, declining from 10.1 to 8.0 in May.