Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the Canadian retail sales to build on recent gains with a 1.4% increase in March, reflecting broad strength in household goods consumption.

• Gasoline stations and motor vehicle sales should lead the move, with the former benefitting from a 10% m/m increase in the price at the pump. This will allow the ex. autos measure to come in near the headline print at 1.3%, although sales should see more modest gains (0.8%) when excluding gasoline as well.
• Core retail sales rose by 0.4% in February for their first increase since September and we expect this performance to continue into March on the heels of a sharp increase in consumer goods imports and strong labour market data.
• Real retail sales should underperform the headline print owing to the sharp increase in gasoline prices although we still expect to see an increase of roughly 0.8% m/m. This is consistent with a flat print on Q1 after soft data in Jan/Feb which may reignite concerns about the Canadian consumer after an abysmal Q4, but it will provide a solid handoff to Q2.