Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that USD/JPY pair is eroding the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 109.23 and failure there concentrates attention back on the recent May low at 109.02.

“Failure at 109.02 would push the late January low at 108.49 and the 50% retracement at 108.25 to the fore. Further down sits the 107.27 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Minor resistance comes in at the 110.84 April 10 low and the 111.41 200 day moving average. These guard the 112.33 downtrend. We look for the market to remain capped by its downtrend, only above here would target the 114.55 October 2018 high.”