Rabobank'S analysts suggest there is some risk of further downgrades to the ECB projections and the scene is set for an announcement of the TLTRO-III modalities.

• "We expect the ECB to set the interest rate at MRO flat, with a potential discount to MRO-20bp.
• Still, the ECB faces a clear risk of not appearing dovish enough amidst rate cut expectations.
• Policy rates: 

1. Forward guidance to remain unchanged at “through the end of 2019”
2. In practice, we expect the first deposit rate hike to be delayed until June 2021
3. We don’t expect a tiered deposit rate in the foreseeable future

• Asset Purchase Program: No changes to the reinvestment program or its forward guidance.
• LTROs: We expect a decision on the modalities. We look for a base pricing of MRO flat and a discounted rate of MRO-20bp if targets are met."