According to analysts at ING, it now seems the market is convinced that the Federal Reserve has to act after all the discussion about whether the flat/inverted US yield curve portends the next US recession.

“Beyond the aggressive pricing of Fed cuts (67bps by the end of 2019 and another 33bp by end 2020), we are starting to see a clear, bullish re-steepening of the US 2-10 year Treasury curve. During the last three major Fed rate cutting cycles this curve steepened around 250bp as reflationary Fed policy filtered through the market. Typically a weaker dollar plays a role in reflationary US policy, but its decline is not always immediate.”