TD Securitiesэ analysts have pencilled in cuts by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) for August and November this year.

• “Deteriorating fundamentals and a firmer NZD are catalysts for RBNZ cuts.
• Similar story to AUD, though we like buying AUDNZD dips towards 1.04. Rallies are likely capped in the short-term around the 1.07 level.
• Risk: The increase in capital requirements drives the RBNZ to cut in 2020 to 0.75%.
• Where we could be wrong: The likelihood of a truce between the US and China would remove pressure on Central Banks to ease. Any signs that spare capacity is being absorbed faster than anticipated and/or domestic consumption and investment picks up would provide the RBA and RBNZ time and hold off from easing.”