Analysts at BNP Paribas think that the U.S. growth picked-up by early 19 but this was partly due to one-off factors (inventories) as the trend in private domestic demand is more subdued.

• “The housing market is softening, corporate investment should slow, as well as exports. Core inflation remains well under control and has eased a bit.
• Regarding the more cautious message delivered by the Fed’s president. J. Powell (about trade tensions), we believe the Fed Funds target rate will be cut by 2 quarter points in Q3, coming back to 1.75-2%."