Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, points out that EUR/USD pair has eroded the March and mid-June lows at 1.1181/76 on a closing basis and attention has reverted to 1.1110/06 the April and May lows.

“It is on the defensive very near term and while we look for this to ideally hold, failure here on a closing basis will introduce scope to the 1.0980 2018-2019 support line, which in turn guards the 78.6% retracement at 1.0814/78.6% retracement. The intraday Elliott wave counts indicate that the 1110/06 lows should hold. Initial resistance lies at 1.1285, the 11th July high guards the 55 week ma at 1.1382. The market will need to regain the 55 week ma at 1.1382 to generate upside interest.”