Analysts at Rabobank note the advance estimate of U.S. Q2 GDP will take the spotlight today, ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.

• “The Bloomberg consensus survey is calling for a 1.8% growth rate (s.a., annualized) in the second quarter of the year, down from the 3.1% seen in Q1. However, with well-entrenched expectations that the Fed will take out an ‘insurance cut’ next week, today’s GDP is unlikely going to change the market consensus about the upcoming Fed meeting.
• A poor GDP release could again spur some market participants to increase their expectations of a 50bp cut, but a large majority expects the FOMC to deliver a regular 25bp rate reduction, us included. Risks of a follow-up cut later in the year remain elevated, though.”