Michael Gordon, the senior economist at Westpac, expects the New Zealand’s unemployment rate to rise to 4.3% in the June quarter, reflecting the recent softening in business conditions and hiring.

• “We also expect some pick-up in employment and participation after they both surprisingly fell in the previous quarter.
• Given the risk of mixed signals, we recommend focusing on the unemployment rate and the QES measure of jobs growth.
• Wage growth is expected to accelerate, largely due to a big increase in the minimum wage.”