Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the China’s CPI to push higher to 2.8% y/y in July from 2.7% y/y in June, largely driven by food prices.

“Rising pork prices (21.1% y/y in June) fuelled by the impact of African Swine Fever will likely continue to push up the food component of CPI and thus overall CPI over H2 19. Food prices rose 8.3% y/y in June compared to a 1.4% y/y increase in non-food CPI. We expect ex-food CPI to remain subdued, which will likely mean that PBoC does not pull back from its targeted easing stance.”