David Mann, global chief economist at Standard Chartered, expects the global economy to slow further, but not to fall into recession.

“We see a protracted slowdown, driven largely by structural factors including slowing workforce growth in economies such as China and the US. Whether the global economy falls into recession will depend on fundamentals, policy and confidence. Fundamentals are softening; there are pockets of excessive leverage, including in China. Policy is now aimed at countering the slowdown, in line with our dovish wave theme since earlier this year, but confidence is being damaged nevertheless. Markets seem to expect little (or no) progress on US-China trade negotiations in the coming months; this leaves room for a positive surprise. But even if the two sides settle their economic dispute relatively soon, the long-term damage to investor sentiment is already done. Any deal that might be reached is unlikely to be the end of the story.”