According to TD Securities analysis team, the key data point today will be German HICP for August, where they see downside risks and look for slowdown to 1.0% y/y (mkt 1.2%).

“Core inflation has been incredibly volatile for the last several months, but August tends to be a much more stable month on a m/m basis, which should leave core CPI unchanged at 0.9% y/y. The contribution from energy prices is likely to decline a bit, weighing on the headline figure. We also get German unemployment data for August today, which we'll be watching more closely than normal for any sign that the contraction in manufacturing activity translates into job losses.”