TD Securities analysts are expecting the U.S. spending to have advanced at a strong 0.5% m/m pace in July, up from 0.3% in June.

• “In the details, a 0.5% m/m increase in services spending should have been the main driver of the July gain, with a rise in spending on nondurables also helping on the headline.
• Separately, we project headline PCE and core inflation to advance 0.2% m/m each for July. This should keep their annual rates unchanged at 1.4% and 1.6% y/y, respectively. We note, however, that the recent revision to PCE inflation for Q2 raises the odds for softer prints on the annual measures.”