Karen Jones, the analyst at Commerzbank, suggests that USD/JPY has recently sold off to and reversed from the 104.55/10 January low and the 2013-2019 uptrend and this support is reinforced by the 200-month ma at 104.44 and this should act as a near term floor for the market.

• “It has now also eroded the 20-day ma and we would allow for further gains to the 107.21 18th July low. A recovery above here is needed to alleviate immediate downside pressure. This guards the 108.99/109.32 recent highs.
• Failure at 104.10 would target 99.00 the 2016-low, but for now, we would allow for consolidation and look for the market to hold at circa 104.50/10.”