Analysts at TD Securities suggest that, while energy markets may have been tightening, it is increasingly likely that deeper and longer cuts will be required to reach a balanced market.

• “While the OPEC+ group of producers are likely staying the course with their production curtailment agreement until at least the end of Q1 next year, especially Saudi amid the potential Aramco IPO and Iran/Venezuela amid sanctions and economic turmoil, it is increasingly unlikely the cartel will be able to deliver the required cuts quickly enough to prevent a loosening of conditions next year.
• Further, there are concerns that Saudi Arabia could have difficulty persuading allies to deepen their curtailments when the cartel meets in December. When the supply side of the equation is the concern, OPEC policy has proven to be successful, but the cartel's effort may prove fruitless when demand is the issue, which raises major concerns for the energy market.”