In opinion of Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, EUR/USD could drop and test the 1.1060/30 band ahead of a potential recovery.

“EUR/USD spent much of the week easing back from the 200 day ma at 1.1201 and then the top of the channel at 1.1283 this week. The 55 week ma lies at 1.1248. Very near term we would allow for slippage to the 1.1060/1.1030 vicinity ahead of recovery. Longer term the critical resistance to overcome is the 200 week ma at 1.1356 and while we would allow for this zone of resistance to hold the initial test, longer term we look for a break higher to feature. This will target 1.1520/70, the 2019 high, as a minimum”.