Rabobank analysts are expecting the Bank of Canada to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% on 30th October.

“This is expected by 27 of the 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and CAD OIS implies almost no chance of a move in either direction. CAD OIS currently points to around a 20% chance of a cut by the middle of next year but we see this as significantly under-priced - we expect four 25bp cuts next year. Despite global headwinds and underlying domestic weakness, Governor Poloz is likely to adopt an optimistic but cautious neutral tone at this week’s meeting. We will see a new Monetary Policy Report which is likely to downgrade growth forecasts. In terms of USD/CAD, we have seen a significant decoupling from interest rate differentials but we expect this to continue and we see a repricing of the Canadian curve pushing USD/CAD higher into year-end.”