Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, explains that EUR/USD held steady yesterday, having recently eroded the 55 day ma and the 50% retracement the market has an uphill battle to stabilise and recover.

“It has now failed for the past 4 weeks at the 1.1180 level, and near term rallies will need to regain 1.1100 in order to trigger a retest of 1.1180. The move lower has neutralised the chart– it is unclear if the market will recover from here to the 200 day ma at 1.1186 and the top of the channel at 1.1269 (however this is slightly favoured as we suspect the slide lower was just an ‘a-b-c’ correction). Or if we will see one more final leg down to the base of the channel at 1.0865 and the 1.0814 Fibo retracement before a sustained recovery is seen. Below 1.0879 we have the January 2017 low at 1.0829 and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017-2018 advance at 1.0814.”