Analysts at Wells Fargo note that October retail sales data released today revealed that control group sales continued to rise at a solid pace, but have cooled from their breakneck pace earlier this year.

• “Retail sales bounced back in October, rising 0.3% over the month. This was a welcome sign after retailers saw the first decline in sales (-0.3%) in seven months in September. While the report was broadly positive, only six of thirteen retail categories reported higher sales, and with sales reported in nominal terms, we suspect some of the gains were price-related.
• Looking through some of these volatile components, control group sales, which excludes sales at restaurants, gasoline stations, building materials stores and auto dealers, also rose 0.3%. That trend-like gain, however, wasn’t enough to sustain the breakneck, and unsustainable, pace of growth in recent months, and pushed the three-month annualized rate down to 4.0% in October. While that is still a solid pace, it’s the slowest in nine months.
• August and September sales were revised lower, but the October retail sales report still suggests no material change to our forecast of a 5% gain in 2019 holiday sales.”