Timme Spakman, economist at ING, notes that world trade declined 1.3% month-on-month, dragging third quarter trade down 1% compared to the same period a year ago.

“News about the negotiations between the US and China has been mixed at best and trade remains subdued: New trade figures released by the CPB show a deceleration in trade growth after two months of MoM growth. In recent weeks, it looked like the US and China were approaching a phase one deal. However, officials from both parties have been giving mixed signals, highlighting the fragility of the talks. And uncertainty still reigns in Europe. Tariffs on American automotive imports seem to be off the table for now, as President Trump missed the 14 November deadline to take a decision on the matter. Trade tensions have slammed the brake on world trade growth in 2019. While the trade war has directly affected trade flows between China and the US, the fallout has been widespread.”