Chinese President Xi Jinping has had a “horrible couple weeks” politically — and he’s not likely to sign a “phase one” trade deal with U.S. President Donald Trump without any roll back in existing tariffs, one expert said.

“China has politics the same as U.S. has politics. Trump has to play to his base, Xi has to worry about his internal politics, he has to worry about his standing within the party,” Steve Okun, senior advisor at consultancy McLarty Associates, told CNBC.

Any trade deal between the two countries “needs to be a win-win,” Okun said, and delaying new tariffs may not work.

In light of political challenges facing Xi such as Hong Kong, Okun said he can’t see the Chinese leader signing an agreement “in which he gets nothing other than the postponement of new tariffs.”

In addition to the stalemate in the U.S.-China trade negotiations, the protests in Hong Kong could be another major challenge to Xi’s authoritative rule, according to political commentators and media reports.