According to Karen Jones, analyst at Commerzbank, EUR/USD may have failed on its initial test of the 5 month downtrend at 1.1111, however the sell-off has so far held over the 20 day ma at 1.1046.

“It has not taken any support of note out and as a consequence attention therefore remains on the topside and the down trend guards the 1.1180 October high and the 1.1242 channel resistance and eventually the 1.1358 200 week ma. This latter level remains the critical break point on the topside from a medium term perspective. Key nearby support is the recent low at 1.0981. Failure at 1.0980 targets the 1.0943 78.6% retracement. This is seen as the last defence for the 1.0879 October low and the 1.0814 Fibo retracement, and if seen, we will look for signs of reversal from here.”