• European session review: EUR mixed following grim GDP forecasts from European Commission and weaker-than-expected May industrial output data from Germany

Notícias do Mercado

7 julho 2020

European session review: EUR mixed following grim GDP forecasts from European Commission and weaker-than-expected May industrial output data from Germany

TimeCountryEventPeriodPrevious valueForecastActual
06:00GermanyIndustrial Production s.a. (MoM)May-17.5%10%7.8%
06:45FranceTrade Balance, blnMay-5.1 -7.1
07:00Switzerland Foreign Currency ReservesJune816.5 850.1
07:30United KingdomHalifax house price indexJune-0.2%-0.9%-0.1%
07:30United KingdomHalifax house price index 3m Y/YJune2.6% 2.5%

EUR traded mixed against its major counterparts in the European session on Tuesday after the European Commission slashed its economic forecasts and Germany posted weaker-than-expected industrial output data for May.  

While the European single currency fell against USD, GBP and CHF, it rose against the rest of major rivals.

The European Commission estimated the Eurozone's GDP would fall by 8.7 percent in 2020, a deeper decline than the 7.7 percent forecast three months ago, as lockdowns intended to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus are eased more gradually than anticipated. In addition, it lowered its forecast for a 2021 rebound to 6.1 percent from 6.3 percent previously, citing the "still rising" rate of global infections.

According to the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering, the total number of confirmed global cases of the COVID-19 rose to 11,645,109, with the U.S. recording 2,938,625 coronavirus cases, the most in the world. Growing coronavirus infections triggered a reintroduction of regional lockdown measures in some countries, hurting investor confidence in a fast recovery of the global economy from COVID-19 pandemic and curbing risk appetites as well.

Germany's Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported on Tuesday the country’s industrial production surged 7.8 percent m-o-m in May after a record 17.5 percent m-o-m plunge in the prior month. Economists had forecast a 10.0 percent climb in May. The major contributors to the May production jump were the higher output of capital goods (+27.6 percent m-o-m) and consumer goods (+1.4 percent m-o-m) as well as increased energy production (+1.7 percent m-o-m) and construction output (+0.5 percent m-o-m). At the same time, the production of intermediate goods (-0.1 percent m-o-m) edged down. On a yearly basis, German industrial output declined 19.3 percent, following a 25.0 percent decrease in April.

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