• Dallas Fed president Kaplan: My views on second-quarter contraction, the size of it, are about the same - about 35% annualized

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17 julho 2020

Dallas Fed president Kaplan: My views on second-quarter contraction, the size of it, are about the same - about 35% annualized

  • I have been of the view that the economy probably bottomed in Apri; we were starting to grow in May;  we were going to grow in June, July, and from here for the rest of the year; and we would have  rebound from the second quarter
  • And then we had the resurgence in cases, and  we started to see a change in high-frequency data, particularly the mobility data we track
  • We started to see a stall out around the middle of June
  • Conversations with businesses and high-frequency data show that we're growing at slower rate than I had hoped
  • Small businesses that I talked to now are seeing their businesses slow again, and for some - depending on what they do - slow substantially; they're much more concerned whether they are in fact going to make it
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