According to the report from Sentix, the economic recovery, which has been observable globally since May 2020, continues in September. In Euroland, but also in many other regions, we are measuring the fifth consecutive rise in the overall indices. A positive aspect is that the expectation values remain stable, i.e. the improvement is largely driven by the current situation.

The dynamic catch-up process of the Euroland economy continues in September. For the fifth time in a row, the overall index improved to its current level of -8 points. After all, this is the best value since February 2020! On the positive side, this improvement is supported by stable expectation values. These have been around +20 points since June. In other words: the overall index is improving mainly due to a better assessment of the current situation. This is also urgently needed, as the situation rushed in March to levels that were even lower than those at the height of the financial crisis. But the way out of the recession remains a long way off, as the current value of -33 for the situation assessment shows.

Overall, the current recovery phase is similar to that of 2009, when we also saw a continuous improvement, which, as today, had little impact on stock market expectations. In 2010, investors were positively surprised by the economy. At present, investors doubt that there will be a repeat. Investors still believe that only about 75% of the economic slump will be made up within a year as a result of the lockdown in March. A second lockdown or similar is not even factored into the price.