FXStreet reports that strategists at Westpac attempt to assign probabilities around four possible outcomes to the current negotiations and its implications for the pound.

“A deal by mid November, approved by a special EC Summit, endorsed by EU Parliament’s 24-27 plenary session and ratified before mid-December. 45% chance and could see GBP lift 8-10%.”

“Agreement is elusive by mid-March but a deal is found by early December, approved by EC’s 10-11 December Summit, endorsed by EU Parliament’s 14-17 December plenary session. 35% chance and could see GBP lift 5-8%.”

“No deal but agreement to work together towards a standard third party FTA. GBP would likely side 5-8%.”

“Acrimonious no deal. Immediate fall into WTO rules with disorderly and disruptive customs, border controls and cumbersome bureaucracy. Under 10% chance. GBP would likely fall some 12%.”