CNBC reports that Fitch Ratings expects Brent prices to drop to $45 per barrel in 2021, even though there’s good news on the vaccine front. That’s close to 9% lower than what a Refinitiv Eikon poll is predicting. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects the international benchmark to be at $46.59.

Dmitry Marinchenko, senior director at Fitch Ratings, said the company is more cautious.

“We expect prices to be, on average, at $45 next year for Brent,” he told CNBC. “This assumes that the demand will remain weak until at least the second half of the year, because the progress with mass vaccination probably will not be very quick.”

Marinchenko said vaccines will “probably not have a significant impact” on oil demand until the second half of 2021.

“With weak demand, and with OPEC trying to manage supply … to avoid large surpluses or deficits in the market, we expect prices to be at $45 next year,” he said.