FXStreet notes that inflation is currently very low but there is high uncertainty over the level of inflation in the future: there is talk of deflation, but also of a return of inflation for various reasons. Economists at Natixis find that protection against inflation is provided by equities and real estate at all horizons in the eurozone and by only bonds at a very long horizon in the U.S.

“Inflation is currently very low both in the United States and in the eurozone. But there is high uncertainty over the future level of inflation, due to excess global savings; there is talk of a risk of deflation and strong money creation, population ageing, the energy transition, reshoring, etc. There is also talk of a return of inflation. Faced with this uncertainty, investors may want to protect against inflation.”

“We find a significant positive correlation between inflation and returns on equities and real estate in the eurozone in monthly, quarterly and annual data as well as over two and four-year periods and equity returns in the United States in annual data and bond returns in the United States over four-year periods.”