14 janeiro 2021
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts: PEPP continued to be more efficient than a rate cut in current pandemic conditions characterised by high uncertainty
The ECB
released account of its 9-10 December 2020 monetary policy meeting. It noted
that:
- Incoming data
and the Eurosystem staff projections suggested more pronounced near-term impact
of the pandemic on economic activity and inflation than previously envisaged;
- Market
sentiment had improved notably following the news of successful development of
vaccines and on account of expected monetary policy measures;
- It was
cautioned that uncertainty remained high and positive sentiment could erode
quickly in the event of negative news;
- It was widely
considered an appropriate and proportional response to prevailing type of shock
to increase horizon of net purchases under PEPP until March 2022, extend
reinvestments of principal payments from maturing securities purchased under
PEPP until the end of 2023, and to add more TLTRO III operations, extending the
pandemic-related low interest rate period to June 2022;
- It was agreed
that proposed longer horizon of PEPP and TLTRO III was broadly in line with
expected duration of the pandemic crisis, continued uncertainty about roll-out of vaccines, and expected return of economic activity to its
pre-pandemic level;
- It was also
agreed that, on balance, benefits of PEPP purchases and the TLTRO III
outweighed the potential costs;
- A more moderate
increase in PEPP envelope was advocated by number of members; however, some
arguments were also made in favour of larger envelope;
- Concerns were
voiced over risks related to developments in exchange rate that might have
negative consequences for inflation outlook