The setback in USD/JPY following its rejection from 114.73/92 has been contained at its rising 13-day exponential average at 113.46. Economists at Credit Suisse look for the core uptrend to resume from here towards the 117.00/10 area.

Support at 113.46/41 to hold for an eventual break above 114.73/92

“USD/JPY weakness has been contained at its rising short-term 13-day exponential average, now seen at 113.46 and we look for a resumption of the core uptrend. Above 114.21 should add weight to our view for a fresh look at 114.73/92 – the high of November 2017 and 78.6% retracement of the December 2016/March 2020 fall just.” 

“With a major base in place above the 112.40 high of 2019 we look for an eventual break above 114.73/92 in due course for a move to 115.51 initially and then the long-term downtrend from April 1990 at 117.00/10. We look for a potentially lengthy consolidation phase to emerge here.”

“Below 113.46/41 would warn of a deeper corrective setback to 113.29/21, with the 38.2% retracement of the October rally at 113.08/00 ideally holding.”