Given the war in Ukraine, does it make sense to talk of a war economy in the European Union? In the opinion of analysts at Natixis, the economic tensions caused by the war in Ukraine are quite similar to what would have been caused, without the war in Ukraine, by the normalisation of Europe’s defence effort and by the energy transition.

Economic tensions in the EU would have occurred without the war in Ukraine

“The European Union is experiencing economic tensions (reduction in the use of fossil fuels, need for increased defence spending) due to the war in Ukraine. But similar tensions would have occurred: To align defence spending with other countries; To invest sufficiently in the energy transition; To maintain the purchasing power of low-income households due to the rise in prices caused by the transition.” 

“The war in Ukraine is requiring Europe to make adjustments (increased defence spending, huge energy transition investments, rise in the relative price of energy) that would have happened anyway.”