The Swedish krona has retraced most of the last month's losses again. However, economists at Commerzbank do not expect the EUR/SEK to trade sustainably below the 10.30 level.

Losses retraced, but only little more potential

“The market has now priced in the restrictive monetary policy – a reason why SEK has retraced its losses and has recovered once again. But also, a reason why SEK does not have much more upside potential against the euro.”

“If we really were to see a recession in the eurozone due to the energy crisis the Swedish economy is unlikely to be able to decouple from that due to the close ties with the eurozone and would also have to expect negative effects, which in turn might affect Riksbank’s monetary policy.”

“I consider EUR/SEK levels below the 10.30 mark to be unlikely and not justified at present.”