Economists at Danske Bank expect rising concerns for global recession, a crackled housing market and a murkier Swedish growth outlook to weigh on the SEK over the coming 6-12 months forecasting EUR/SEK at 11.00.

Dropping the case for emergency hikes

“We expect the Riksbank to hike 75 bps in both September and November before they go on hold at 2.25%. While this represents frontloaded tightening, it is slightly below market pricing and as such, at least on the margin, SEK negative.” 

“Rising concerns for global recession remains a medium-term headwind for the SEK alongside a crackled housing market and with that a murkier Swedish growth outlook which at the end of the day will cap interest rates.”

“Forecast: 10.50 (1M), 10.60 (3M), 10.80 (6M), 11.00 (12M).”