• Offers pick-up around 61.8% Fibo retracement has weakened the kiwi bulls.
• The 20-period EMA has acted as a major hurdle for the antipodean.
• A downside below 40.00 by the RSI (14) may initiate a fresh selling in the asset.

The NZD/USD pair is falling firmly after surrendering the round-level cushion of 0.6200 in the Asian session. Gains recorded on Tuesday after the release of the dismal US PMI data are majorly vapored in Tokyo and the asset is declining to re-test the monthly low of 0.6156 sooner.

After failing to sustain above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (placed from July 14 low at 0.6061 to August 12 high at 0.6468) at 0.6217, kiwi bulls have weakened vigorously. Also, the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) placed at 0.6210 has acted as a major hurdle for the asset.

The 50-period EMA at 0.6255 is declining sharply, which indicates more downside ahead. On the oscillator front, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has shifted into the neutral range of 40.00-60.00 from the bearish range of 20.00-40.00. But that doesn’t warrant that the impact of bears is fading.  Going forward, a drop below 40.00 will initiate a fresh bearish impulsive wave.

For a fresh downside move, the greenback bulls need to drag the asset below Monday’s low at 0.6156, which will drag the asset towards July 15 low at 0.6115, followed by July 14 low at 0.6061.

Alternatively, a breach of Tuesday’s high at 0.6245 will send the asset towards the August 8 high at 0.6304. A breach of the latter will unleash the kiwi bulls for further upside towards the August 1 high at 0.6353.

NZD/USD four-hour chart