The Norwegian krone (NOK) has been remarkably resilient over the past week, with EUR/NOK pushing below 9.70. Economists at Credit Suisse revise their Q3 EUR/NOK target lower from 10.35 to 10.00, staying bearish NOK but with a more modest target.

NOK/SEK should settle slightly lower around 1.08

“While we retain a fundamentally still bearish view on NOK, we revise our EUR/NOK target lower from 10.35 to 10.00, near the 200-day moving average.”

“This is consistent with a Q3 USD/NOK target of around 10.31; combined with our 10.80 EUR/SEK target, it suggests NOK/SEK should settle slightly lower around 1.08, perhaps having tested the Q1 levels north of 1.10 beforehand.”

“While growth and geopolitical risks in continental Europe leave us structurally net bearish NOK, terms of trade have grown increasingly supportive and monetary policy is not providing a strong enough offsetting force for now.”