• Fed's Bullard: Rates aren't high enough now

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25 agosto 2022

Fed's Bullard: Rates aren't high enough now

Federal Reserve's president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard: in a CNBC interview has said rates aren't high enough now.

Key notes

  • 3.75% - 4% is my target for this year.
  • Says he likes the idea of front loading; it ‘shows you are serious about inflation fight’.
  • Rates aren't high enough now.
  • Labour market is strong right now.
  • Front loading shows you are serious about the inflation fight.
  • Rates aren't high enough now.
  • Need to get the policy rate to where it pushes downward pressure on inflation.
  • After rates get above 3.75%-4%, not quite sure what's next.    
  • My baseline is that inflation will be more persistent than many expect.    
  • Inflation will be higher for longer.    
  • That risk is underpriced in the market. 
  • Markets are showing outstanding confidence in the Fed, hope they are right.
  • The risk is that we may have to be higher for longer.    
  • Asked about the stock market, says he tries to stay away from equity pricing.    
  • I don't want to take too much signal from the stock market.    
  • Bond markets give a little better pricing of the risk we will have to do more.   
  • You should be able to hit the inflation target even if there are factors out of Fed's control.
  • Recessions are not that predictable.    
  • We are of course taking recession risk, but we don't know one way or the other.    
  • GDP was positive for the 2Q, consistent with what businesses say about hard-to-hire
  • After the pandemic, we set out a path on asset-buying that was 'overboard'.    
  • Now we have to switch back; the Fed has to get inflation back to 2%.

Meanwhile, Fed funds futures traders are pricing in a 59% chance that the Fed will hike rates by another 75 basis points at its September meeting, and a 41% probability of a 50 basis points increase. The US dollar slipped on Thursday in choppy trading as investors waited on a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday for further clues about the ongoing pace of the US central bank’s rate hikes.

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