Economists at Danske Banke now expect Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) to raise its key policy by 75 bps next week followed by 50 bps rate hike in October and 25 bps in December. 

EUR/DKK below 7.4360 may force DN to cut rates or raise it by less than ECB

“We now expect a 75 bps hike in September followed by a 50 bps hike in October and 25 bps in December. It brings the key policy rate to 1.40% in December.”

“High inflation may force ECB, and thus DN, to make additional policy rate hikes in 2023.”

“Should EUR/DKK fall to 7.4360 again and trigger renewed DKK selling in FX intervention, DN may opt to cut its key policy rate or raise it by less than ECB – likely by 10bp. It is not our base case, but a reasonable possibility given the persistent low EUR/DKK.”