• The AUD/USD stays positive, although off the day’s highs.
• Fed’s Mester: Expects the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) to end at around 4% in 2023.
• Mixed US economic data, a tailwind for the AUD/USD.

The AUD/USD is almost flat, though off the day’s highs after hitting a daily high above the 0.6900 mark. Factors like risk aversion courtesy of month-end flows, alongside Fed speakers reiterating the need to get into the restrictive mode. At the time of writing, the AUD/USD is trading at 0.6858, just above its opening price.

US equities remain heavy due to risk-off. Fed policymakers continue to grab the spotlight. On Wednesday, Loretta Mester expressed that rates in the US need to be above 4% by the next year while adding that she does not estimate rate cuts in the next year. She added that recession fears had risen but are not part of her baseline.

Data-wise, the US economic calendar was light, though it featured the August ADP Employment Change, the first one, after pausing due to some changes made to the survey. Private hirings rose by 132K less than July’s 270K. Later, the Chicago PMI for August increased more than estimated, topping 52.2 vs. 52 expected by analysts.

Meanwhile, on the Australian side, the Australian Construction Work Done for the second quarter, plunged by 3.8% QoQ vs. estimates of a 0.9% expansion.

Analysts at ANZ said, “The weakness was widespread across states and sectors. This raises concerns that construction activity will not be as strong as we had expected this year, despite the extensive pipelines of work yet to be done, particularly across the residential and infrastructure sectors. Demand is still there, capacity utilization in the industry is running well above average, but supply constraints don’t explain the extent of the weakness in Q2.

What to watch

The Australian economic docket will feature the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI alongside the AIG Manufacturing Index, both readings expected to slow down. On the US front, the calendar will feature unemployment claims, the S&P Global PMI, and, most importantly, the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

AUD/USD Key Technical Levels