Economists at ING doubt an extra 25 bps of European Central Bank (ECB) tightening this autumn makes much of a difference to the soft EUR/USD profile. The pair is set to remain within a 0.99-1.01 range.

ECB hawks may struggle to generate euro lift-off

“Markets now price 69bp of hikes at the September meeting, a total of 130 bps by the October meeting, and a total of 167 bps by year-end. However, the recent narrowing in EUR: USD two-year swap spreads may have run its course, and a reversal – should the ECB not deliver on this new hawkish pricing – could send EUR/USD to fresh lows next week.”

“EUR/USD to stay offered in a 0.9900-1.0100 range.”