• NZD/USD opened in a bearish gap despite some prospects of Gazprom shipments to the EU.
• Gazprom said that it would increase its shipments of gas to Europe via Ukraine.

NZD/USD is under pressure from the off at the start of the week following an opening gap to the downside to print a low of 0.6076. The bird has finished Friday's play in a correction and higher in New York as asset markets recovered in the wake of the small uptick in the US unemployment rate and a disappointment in wages. 

The greenback eased from a 20-year high on Friday following the Unemployment Rate coming in at 3.7% vs. 3.5% expected and Average Hourly Earnings missing the mark as well, at 0.3% month on month vs. 0.4% expected. The market initially dialled down its expectations of a 75 basis point hike from the Federal Reserve at the next meeting later this month, however, the Participation Rate was higher, potentially explaining the higher Unemployment Rate.

The market was volatile around the report but the Fed funds futures were unchanged and were pricing about a 75% chance that the Fed hikes rates by 75 basis points this month, according to Refinitiv data, which could be supportive for the greenback in the lead into the Federal Reserve this month. 

Looking ahead, partial local data will be giving clues about Q2 GDP, as analysts at ANZ bank explained,  but argued that FX markets will remain very globally focussed. The news the Russian energy giant, Gazprom, said that it would increase its shipments of gas to Europe via Ukraine, according to media reports, should be positive for risk. The company said it would ship some 42.7 million cubic meters of natural gas through Ukraine to Europe on Saturday, Reuters reported.