August month employment statistics from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, up for publishing at 01:30 GMT on Thursday, will be the immediate catalyst for the AUD/USD pair traders.

Market consensus suggests that the headline Unemployment Rate may remain unchanged at 3.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis whereas Employment Change could reverse the previous contraction of 40.9K with the addition of 35K. Further, the Participation Rate is also expected to improve to 66.6% versus 66.4% prior.

Considering the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) recently cautious comments, coupled with the trouble in China, today’s Aussie jobs report become crucial as the AUD/USD remains near the yearly bottom.

In addition to the employment data, the quarterly release of the RBA Bulletin will also be released around 01:30 AM GMT and hence warrants extra cautiousness from the AUD/USD traders.

Ahead of the event, analysts at Westpac said,

How could the data affect AUD/USD?

Ahead of the data, AUD/USD remains directionless around 0.6750, fading the previous day’s rebound from a one-week low. In doing so, the Aussie pair portrays the pre-data anxiety. Also likely to have restricted the pair’s moves could be the mixed concerns over China and the cautious mood ahead of the US Retail Sales.

That said, hopes of an upbeat Aussie jobs report could propel the AUD/USD to be fewer amid the broad pessimism surrounding economic slowdown and 75 bps Fed rate hike in September, not to forget doubts over the RBA’s next move. However, strong prints of the Employment Change and softer Unemployment Rate won’t go unnoticed and hence can provide a knee-jerk upside to the quote.

Considering this, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta says

Technically, a two-month-old ascending support line, at 0.6700 by the press time, precedes the yearly low of 0.6680 to restrict the short-term downside of the AUD/USD pair. The recovery moves, however, need validation from the monthly resistance line and the 50-DMA, respectively near 0.6850 and 0.6890 in that order. Overall, AUD/USD is likely to hold lower grounds but could remain range bound.

Key Notes

AUD/USD steadies around 0.6750 ahead of Aussie employment data, US Retail Sales

Australian Employment Preview: Will labor market upturn save the aussie?

About the Employment Change

The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

About the Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).