EUR/USD continues to consolidate near parity. But economists at HSBC expect the pair to see new year-to-date (YTD) lows in the coming weeks.

Risks from Italy’s upcoming general election do not appear onerous

“While parity on EUR/USD is providing an anchor for now, we expect the pair to break to new YTD lows in the coming weeks on a combination of USD strength and the range of challenges facing the eurozone economy (such as recession risks and elevated inflation).”

“On a positive note, the risks from Italy’s upcoming general election on 25 September do not appear onerous, while our economists note that the tone of the campaign has been moderate and there has been no strong EUR-sceptic element. If there are downside risks to the EUR from Italian political developments, they seem unlikely to materialize this month.”