• EUR/USD has sensed buying interest below 0.9800 as risk-off is losing its grip.
• The DXY is expected to remain volatile ahead of the US NFP data.
• Fed’s extreme policy tightening measures are responsible for weaker NFP projections.

The EUR/USD pair has delivered an upside break of the consolidation formed in a narrow range of 0.9786-0.9802 in the Tokyo session. The asset has picked bids below the round-level cushion of 0.9800 and is displaying signs of a rebound as the US dollar index (DXY) has lost its upside momentum. The DXY has sensed selling pressure and has dropped to near 112.00.

Meanwhile, the risk-off impulse has started fading away and S&P500 is gaining traction. Also, the 10-year US Treasury yields have witnessed a minor correction and have slipped to near 3.82%.

It would be difficult to narrate a reversal to the current structure as the rebound is mere a pullback now and sheer volatility is expected ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data. As per the preliminary estimates, the US NFP will drop to near 250k vs. the prior release of 315k. Recently released US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment data reported payrolls addition by 208k. This indicates that the NFP catalyst could land lower than projections.

Well, a decline in employment generation numbers is highly expected as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is continuously tightening its policy measures to tame the roaring inflation. This has forced corporate to postpone their expansion plans to dodge higher interest obligations.  

On the Eurozone front, weaker Retail Sales data will have its hangover for a tad longer period. The Retail Sales data is contaminated with inflationary pressures but still has declined by 2% vs. the projections of a decline of 1.7% and the prior release of 0.9%.