EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure on Monday. Economists at ING expect the world’s most popular currency pair to trade back to back to 0.95 soon.

European Central Bank unlikely to change its hawkish rhetoric

“The energy crisis is forcing a radical shift in the export-oriented economic framework of the eurozone, a theme that will prevent a rapid return to above-parity levels in EUR/USD. After all, our BEER FX equilibrium model has consistently shown that the EZ-US terms of trade (price of exports divided by price of imports) differential is the primary determinant of real EUR/USD medium-term swings, and currently shows that the pair is not undervalued.”

“Like the Fed, it’s hard to imagine the ECB would want to radically change its hawkish rhetoric at this stage. But unlike the Fed, tightening by the ECB is not helping its domestic currency, and we see EUR/USD staying offered into the 0.9540 September lows this week.”