S&P 500 heads into today’s key US CPI data under intense downward pressure. Analysts at Credit Suisse continue to look for a sustained close below the 200-week average for an eventual fall to the 3235/3195 region.

A move above 3641 can offer some near-term relief

“S&P 500 remains under significant downward pressure, holding below its key 200-week average at 3599. Whilst today’s data stays seen critical as to the next immediate directional move for the market, our core outlook stays seen firmly negative, whether we rebound today or not.”

“Resistance at 3641 capping can maintain an immediate bearish outlook with support seen next at 3554/44 then the Q1 2020 pre-pandemic high and 50% retracement of the 2020/2021 uptrend at 3505/3494. Our core objective though remains at the 3235/3195 support cluster, which includes the 38.2% retracement of the entire uptrend from the 2009 GFC low.” 

“Above 3641 can offer some near-term relief for strength back to the 13-day exponential average at 3682, potentially the price gap from Friday at 3707/3745 but with a fresh cap expected here.”