EUR/USD flirts with the 21-DMA hurdle surrounding the 0.9800 threshold as buyers struggle to defend upside momentum amid sluggish oscillators. Also challenging the major currency pair’s latest upside move are the sluggish conditions of the RSI (14) and MACD.
Hence, the pair’s upside break of the 21-DMA hurdle near 0.9800 isn’t a strong signal for the bulls. However, a run-up towards a downward-sloping resistance line from late June, around 1.0020, can’t be ruled out.
During the advances, the monthly high around the parity level and September’s peak of 1.0198 might act as buffers.
Alternatively, a three-week-long horizontal support area near 0.9670-65 restricts short-term EUR/USD declines ahead of the latest swing low near 0.9630.
In a case where the quote remains bearish past 0.9630, the yearly low of 0.9535 could act as the last defense of buyers, a break of which could direct the bears towards the September 2001 high near 0.6335.
Overall, EUR/USD remains in the recovery mode but the trend reversal is far from here.
Trend: Limited recovery expected